Stagnant Rent Growth Forecasted for Westside Cities and Neighborhoods

Lusk Center for Real Estate at USC releases annual study

By Dolores Quintana

The Lusk Center for Real Estate at USC has revealed its annual Casden Real Estate Forecast for multifamily rental properties in the state of California for the first time since 2019. In the Westside area, from Beverly Hills to the coasts, the forecast is that rents will remain slightly in decline for 2022. 

The drop is slight at 1 percent, but as the report states, “The farther one gets away from the City of Los Angeles, the greater seems to be the potential for rent growth.” The trends seen in 2020 and 2021 were renters moving to the suburbs, since the pandemic got underway, resulting in large projected growth in rental prices outside of Los Angeles and lower rates of availability for rental properties in suburbia. The central and coastal areas of Orange County, Ventura County and San Diego County are all projected to have strong rental price gains. The north county of San Diego, Simi Valley and the south eastern area of Orange County near Irvine are projected to have some of the largest gains closer to Los Angeles. However, of all of the suburban areas, the farthest from the center of Metropolitan Los Angeles namely in the Palm Springs and Indio, western Riverside County, and finally the Rancho Cucamonga and San Bernardino areas have the highest projections for rental rate gains that are nearly in the double digits. The Casden Forecast Report states, “The model forecasts modest further rent declines from downtown Los Angeles moving west to the Pacific Ocean.”

This report cautions that “forecasting in a time of uncertainty is problematic and can indeed be misleading” which lead to the postponement of a forecast in 2020. They believe that “the world is more stable” and that a forecast is now possible with caveats. Their prediction is that the current trends will begin to retreat over the next two years. 

Another factor that has affected the “move away” trend is the lockdown that forced businesses to allow their employees to work from home. It was no longer necessary to commute to remain employed, and as the report states, “The shuttering of office buildings and amenities such as restaurants reduced the willingness of tenants to pay a rent premium in centrally located places.” and furthermore the report notes, “When commuting ceases to happen and places to gather are not available, renters will find less expensive, larger apartments in what are generally less convenient locations more appealing and will thus move.” Low mortgage rates contributed as well, however prices have again risen to a level where it isn’t any less expensive to own a house versus renting a property. The most astonishing development involves the fact that California has lost population for the first time since the state was founded in 1850. Deaths from the pandemic and smaller amounts of immigrants arriving from other countries and residents moving to other places are all part of the drop in population.

If Los Angeles manages to reach the herd immunity level through vaccination, the report states that “we may expect some, and perhaps substantial, reversal of the population flows [sic] from the central parts of the region to the more suburban parts. If this happens, we might see modest rent growth in central markets and slow rent growth at the periphery.”

Related Posts

Tsunami Advisory Issued for Pacific Palisades

January 15, 2022

January 15, 2022

No damage expected for Santa Monica Bay beaches By Sam Catanzaro A tsunami advisory remains in effect for Pacific Palisades...

23 Park Projects To Receive $113 Million in State Grant Funding

January 15, 2022

January 15, 2022

State and County funds to create new parks and improve existing ones By Dolores Quintana $548 million in new grants...

Baseball Star Christian Yelich Sells Palisades-Area Property for $6.5 Million

January 14, 2022

January 14, 2022

SoCal native planning to develop another Malibu property By Dolores Quintana Christian Yelich, All-Star player for the Milwaukee Brewers has...

NYC-Based Developer Finalizes Acquisition of Westside Residential Development Site

January 14, 2022

January 14, 2022

Tishman Speyer to begin construction in late 2022 on its first LA-area residential project By Sam Catanzaro An NYC-based developer...

Bel Air Megamansion ‘The One’ Is Finally Being Put up for Sale

January 14, 2022

January 14, 2022

$295 million asking price for infamous property By Dolores Quintana The One, the most famous of all the megamansions and...

Pacific Palisades Woman Murdered in Hancock Park Furniture Store

January 14, 2022

January 14, 2022

Stabbing of Brianna Kupfer under investigation By Sam Catanzaro Police say a homeless man murdered a Pacific Palisades woman who...

Palisades Resident Pleads Guilty to Federal Extortion Charges

January 13, 2022

January 13, 2022

Thomas H. Peters, former Los Angeles City Attorney’s Official in charge of civil litigation faces up to 20 years in...

Bonin One of Two Councilmembers to Vote Against Anti-Camping Enforcement

January 13, 2022

January 13, 2022

City Council votives to enforce its anti-camping ordinance at 58 new locations By Sam Catanzaro Councilmember Mike Bonin was one...

Palisades Village Shop Sew Chateau is Closing

January 11, 2022

January 11, 2022

Shop closing after five year run By Dolores Quintana After five years, Sew Chateau is saying so long to the...

Local Mountain Lions Show First Reproductive Effects of Inbreeding

January 11, 2022

January 11, 2022

“It’s quite severe,” says the lead researcher in UCLA study  By Sam Catanzaro UCLA scientists tracking two local mountain lion...

Cedars-Sinai Urges Blood Donations

January 11, 2022

January 11, 2022

As 2022 begins, Cedars-Sinai is facing a critical blood shortage and is encouraging prospective donors to give blood as soon...

Annual Homeless Count Seeks Volunteers Through PPTFH: Palisades Today – January 10th, 2022

January 10, 2022

January 10, 2022

Local news and culture in under 5 minutes.* Annual Homeless Count Seeks Volunteers Through PPTFH* Beloved Gerry Blanck’s Dojo Closes...

Mystery Buyer of $83 Million Palisades Mansion Revealed a 26-Year-Old Billionaire

January 7, 2022

January 7, 2022

Austin Russell owner of  20,000 square foot Palisades mansion By Dolores Quintana The buyer of a 20,000 square foot mansion...

Massage Chair Mogul’s Mandeville Canyon “Fortress Estate” Sells for $56.55 Million

January 7, 2022

January 7, 2022

Matt Wollman sells estate  By Dolores Quintana A Mandeville Canyon “fortress estate” has been sold for over $55 million.  Matt...

Opinion: Attorney General Spurs on Big 2022 Housing Battle

January 7, 2022

January 7, 2022

By Tom Elias, Columnist There will be plenty of political battles next year, starting with likely reelection challenges to Gov....