Marguleas, of Amalfi Estates, predicts a peak of 500 active land listings by mid-to-late 2026 if the current pace of over 75 listings per month persists. Since the fires, cumulative totals show a complex recovery, complicated by MLS misclassifications and delayed public records
The real estate market in Pacific Palisades is undergoing significant changes following January’s wildfires, with new land listings outpacing sales but narrowing, according to real estate expert Anthony Marguleas.
Marguleas, of Amalfi Estates, predicts a peak of 500 active land listings by mid-to-late 2026 if the current pace of over 75 listings per month persists. Since the fires, cumulative totals show a complex recovery, complicated by MLS misclassifications and delayed public records.
The lease market has seen 38 properties leased since the fires, with only 11 in the fire-affected area, a sharp decline from 152 leases in the same period last year. Condo sales have also slumped, with just six sold this year compared to 34 last year, four of which were in the Highlands. Off-market land sales account for 17% of activity, consistent with pre-fire levels, though public data lags by about two weeks.
Foreclosures remain low, with 15 properties currently in process—less than 0.125% of the area’s roughly 9,000 homes and condos—though Marguleas expects this could rise to 100-150 over the next year or two. In contrast, Altadena lots are selling at 102% of asking price in 13 days, averaging $643,423 for 9,965 square feet, while Palisades lots sell at 91% of asking, averaging $2.26 million for 8,255 square feet.
Buyers are primarily individuals and LLCs, with no evidence of widespread syndicate purchases beyond a few entities holding multiple lots. Marguleas notes increasing price reductions, urging realistic pricing based on sales, not listings. He anticipates doubled permit activity by August, aided by AI tools like Archistar, and dismisses fears of higher density as some owners consolidate lots.
