Likely Winners and Losers Among the Propositions

By Tom Elias, Palisades News Columnist

The presidential election appears to be no contest in California, if the polls are correct, with Democrat Joe Biden leading Republican incumbent Donald Trump by as much as 39 percent, an unprecedented margin.

But even without a U.S. Senate race to liven things up this fall, there still figure to be plenty of close contests here, in several congressional districts and especially among the 12 initiatives on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Some of those congressional races, mostly in the Central Valley and Orange County, remained too close to call less than two months before Election Day – itself a non-realistic term when all voters will receive mail ballots and most will vote long before the official date of the election.

But clear-cut winners and losers can be spotted among the propositions.

Start with Proposition 15, the fight over the Split Roll, which aims to deprive commercial real estate of its current exemption under the 1978 Proposition 13 from frequent reassessment and property tax increases. In most years, this would have a solid chance, its sponsors promising around $12 billion in new funding for public schools, cities and counties.

None of that money, they say, would come from the pockets of most taxpayers, with the entire new bill footed by owners of factories, office towers, shopping malls and other businesses. But wait. With hundreds of companies sending staff home to work, and thousands of leases getting cancelled or going unrenewed, no one can know what office buildings and other commercial properties will be worth later this year or next. So the $12 billion promise is nebulous at best.

Plus, whatever businesses survive the coronavirus shutdowns will surely pass on to consumers via higher prices every cent of the rent increases that inevitably follow a tax increase. So it turns out the average taxpayer would foot this bill.

Once voters figure this out, — and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association will speed that along – this measure doesn’t figure to do well. It’s a matter of the poorest possible timing and the impatience for change of labor unions behind the Split Roll. They’re ignoring very public advice to hold off two years until the next general election.

But the climate may be right this year for Proposition 16, aiming to end California’s 24-year ban on affirmative action in college admissions, hiring and other fields. Every poll says voters are more sympathetic now to helping minorities upward than they’ve been in decades. While affirmative action went down by a significant margin in a 1996 vote, there’s a good chance for a comeback now.

Another likely winner is Proposition 18, allowing 17-year-olds to vote in primary elections if they’ll be 18 by the following November’s general election. Plenty of senior citizens and middle-aged voters know that high school students taking civics classes can be well informed. Many will gladly opt to expand voting rights a bit.

Another potential winner is Proposition 19, letting homeowners over 55 change homes, but keep their property tax at the same level it’s been for years under the 1978 Proposition 13. This one, backed by realtors wanting to market more homes, might break up the logjam caused by seniors and others hanging onto properties larger than they really need because they can’t afford the taxes they’d have to pay if they buy another home. This would let older folks downsize more comfortably, while opening up buying opportunities for young families in areas where sales are now infrequent.

Reruns also adorn this ballot. Statewide rent control is back after losing badly two years ago. Unless voters have become far more left-leaning since that election – a possibility after two more years of observing President Trump – this one figures to lose again as Proposition 21.

New and larger staffing requirements for kidney dialysis centers are also back after losing two years ago, this time appearing as Proposition 23. It will likely lose once more if the big-money dialysis companies again convince voters this move would cause many dialysis centers to close.

There’s some predictability to all this, but nothing is certain among the propositions, even when it seems to be.

Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net

Related Posts

MedMen Founder Chris Ganan Sells Brentwood Home for $9.9M

October 23, 2020

October 23, 2020

Today on Westside Cribz, 5 questions to ask before you refinance, MedMen founder Chris Ganan sells Brentwood home, and local...

Two Problematic Pacific Palisades Intersections on PPCC Agenda

October 20, 2020

October 20, 2020

Pacific Palisades Community Council meeting to feature presentations on Chautauqua/PCH and Chautauqua/Sunset By Sam Catanzaro The Pacific Palisades Community Council...

Rent Index for Los Angeles Down Since Start of Pandemic

October 18, 2020

October 18, 2020

Apartments.com study shows rents in City of Los Angeles down 6.2 percent By Toi Creel If you’re a renter in...

Edify TV: Deal to House Homeless People Near Freeways

October 18, 2020

October 18, 2020

After months of negotiations, the City and County of LA reached a $300 million deal to house thousands of homeless...

Virtual Staging Changing The Way We Sell Property?

October 16, 2020

October 16, 2020

Today on Westside Cribz, Chuck Lorre buys his neighbors home, Rage Against the Machine drummer Brad Wilk selling his Santa...

Pacific Palisades Among Neighborhoods Donating Most to Joe Biden

October 12, 2020

October 12, 2020

Survey breaks down donations to Biden campaign by zip code By Sam Catanzaro Residents of Pacific Palisades have donated to...

Los Angeles Home-Sharing Ordinance Enforcement Enhancements

October 9, 2020

October 9, 2020

Los Angels City Council has enhanced its home sharing ordinance to help identify unregistered or improperly registered sites When Los...

Katy Perry Selling Beverly Hills Home For $7.95M

October 9, 2020

October 9, 2020

Today on Westside Cribz, The most cost effective remodel projects to raise your homes value, Katy Perry is selling her...

Anti-Maskers, Anti-Vaxxers; What’s the Difference?

October 6, 2020

October 6, 2020

By Tom Elias, Palisades News Columnist The headline back on June 12 was threatening: “A revolt against masks creates new risk,” warned...

Pierce Brosnan Selling James Bond Inspired Malibu home

October 2, 2020

October 2, 2020

Today on Westside Cribz, Pierce Brosnan is selling his $100M dollar James Bond inspired Malibu home, An extended buying season...

Edify TV: West LA VA Redevelopment

October 1, 2020

October 1, 2020

Los Angeles City Council is funding an eight-figure housing development to house veterans at the West Los Angeles VA in...

Edify TV: Trident Center Redevelopment

September 26, 2020

September 26, 2020

The Westside’s Trident Center is getting a major overhaul and new name as part of a flurry of development in...

Selling Your Home? Tips to Increase Property Value.

September 25, 2020

September 25, 2020

Today on Westside Cribz, Kathy Griffin is selling her Bel Air estate, How to increase your home’s value, and Local...

Pacific Palisades Community Council Announces Election Results

September 25, 2020

September 25, 2020

New board to have first official meeting October 8 The Pacific Palisades Community Council (PPCC) has announced the results of...